双语阅读｜过分强调平稳增长 中国经济风险犹存
WHEN 2016 dawned the economy that investors fretted about most was China’s. Memories of a huge stockmarket crash were still fresh. Capital was pouring out of the country as savers anticipated a devaluation of the yuan. In the event, other countries provided the year’s big upsets. And in some respects, the Chinese economy is stronger today than it has been for a couple of years. Producer prices, mired in deflation for 54 straight months, are rising at last. Corporate profits are turning up. Promises to cut overcapacity in coal and steel, and to reduce the overhang of unsold housing, have borne fruit. After three straight quarters of 6.7% annual growth, economists are converging around—you guessed it—6.7% in their forecasts for the final quarter of 2016.
2016年伊始，投资者最担忧的就是中国的经济。人们对股市大崩盘仍然记忆如新。储户们预期人民币会贬值，大量资本外流。与此同时，其它国家在2016年也里经历了大的波折。在某些方面而言，中国经济远比前几年更加强健。生产价格连续54个月深受负通货膨胀影响，不过，最终实现了增长。企业利润也在逐渐上升。中国政府承诺的削减煤和钢铁过剩产能，减少房屋库存，如今已卓见成效。在年增长率连续三季度保持6.7%后，经济学家们纷纷对2016年第四季度做出预测。
However, this outward stability is misleading. Risks lurk both outside China’s borders and within them. If it does not change its attitude to reform, the Middle Kingdom could soon be atop investors’ minds once again.
不过，这种平稳表象极易误导人们。中国国内外面临的危险犹存。倘若中国不改变对改革的态度话，那么其经济表现不久将会再一次成为投资者头等担忧之事。
One obvious source of anxiety is the potential for a trade war. Much depends on what Donald Trump does when he takes office in January. But tensions are already rising. China had expected to win the status of a market economy in December, 15 years after its accession to the World Trade Organisation, but the West refused. Because China sees this as a broken promise, a game of tit-for-tat protectionism may well ensue.
一个直接的担忧源头就是可能引发中美贸易战。当然这很大程度上取决于2017年1月唐纳德·特朗普上任后将采取怎样的行动。然而，中美间矛盾已然升级。在加入世贸组织15年后，中国曾希望在2016年12月获得市场经济地位的认可，却遭到西方国家的无情拒绝。由于中国将此视为毁约，因此一场以牙还牙的贸易保护主义运动或将紧随其后。
Another flashpoint is the currency. Expectations of higher interest rates in America have strengthened the dollar, to which the yuan is partly linked. Meanwhile, Chinese companies and people want more foreign assets, pushing the yuan down. One way the government tries to make the decline gradual is with capital controls. Yet that only adds to the perception that depreciation is a one-way bet, which fuels more outflows. In addition, these controls, if persistent, will undermine confidence in the economy, a deterrent to future investment. Add in Mr Trump’s outdated assertion that China is weakening the yuan so as to help its exporters, and the government is in a bind: the right macroeconomic recipe risks a trade war.
另一条导火线是货币。对美国国内利率上涨的预期推高美元走势，而人民币与美元有着千丝万缕的联系。与此同时，中国企业和人们对海外资产需求的增加，导致人民币贬值。中国政府力图保持人民币平稳贬值的一种方法是实行资本控制。然而，这种行为只能进一步使人们确信，通货紧缩是一种单向押注，反而会刺激更多资本外流。此外，这种控制资本的政策如果长期实行的话，将会损害中国经济的信心，对未来的投资也是一种威慑因素。特朗普不合时宜的声明称，中国的人民币正在走弱，这对于其出口大大有利，而中国政府正陷于困境：若采取正确的宏观经济措施将有引发贸易战的风险。
Locking the stable door
尽力保持平稳发展
Even if China’s trading relations remain calm, the domestic economy suffers from enormous unresolved problems. Despite a government pledge, the country has failed to make a start on deleveraging. A mix of policies (notably, letting local governments swap loans for bonds) has made debts more sustainable. But they are still growing twice as fast as nominal GDP. Total debt should hit nearly 300% of GDP in 2017, an unprecedented figure for a country at China’s income level. Concerned about frothiness in the bond market, the central bank recently tightened short-term liquidity. When smaller firms started to suffer, it quietly ordered big banks to lend to them.
即使中国同他国的贸易关系保持平稳，其国内经济仍存在大量的问题亟待解决。尽管中国政府曾承诺启动去杠杆化计划，但还没有启动。一系列政策（尤其是允许当地政府以贷款换取债券)的出台使得债务持续更长时间。但是，这些借贷仍已名义国内生产总值（nominal GDP）两倍的速度持续增长。截止2017年，债务总额将达到国内生产总值的三倍，就中国居民收入水平而言，可谓是史无前列。出于对债券市场泡沫的担忧，中国央行最近缩紧了短期流动资金数目。当小企业面临资金危机时，就会不动声色地要求大银行借钱给它们。
Last, property is a source of recurring concern. China imposes a bewildering array of restrictions that determine who can buy homes where and with what kind of mortgage. The country’s leaders put their aim succinctly when they outlined their plans for 2017: there shall be “no big ups and downs” in the housing market. But micromanagement has led to a chronic undersupply of homes and thus to bubbly prices in big cities, where growth is strongest, and to a glut in smaller, weaker cities. Were China to heed the price signals, it would let the property market adjust to fit the population. Instead, it wants to adjust the population to fit the property market, driving people—typically, low-income earners—out of big cities.
最后一点，房地产也是周而复始担忧的一个源头。中国出台一系列强硬限制措施，决定哪些人可以在哪里以何种形式抵的押贷款购买房屋。中国领导人在发表2017年国家规划纲要时，简明扼要地提出目标：中国的房地产市场不应再出现剧烈的起伏波动。但是，微观管理却导致在大城市住房长期供不应求，房价迅猛上涨，出现泡沫；而在小城市，房价变化幅度比较温和，供过于求却是常态。要是中国能注意到房价涨跌的信号，它早就会调整措施以保证房地产市场适应中国人口国情了。相反，事实情况是，中国想要调整人口以适应房地产市场，即迫使低收入人群离开大城市。
These trade-offs are devilishly hard to manage. And the government is even less willing to take risks than usual. In autumn 2017 the Communist Party will gather for a big quinquennial conference, where President Xi Jinping is expected to consolidate his grip on power. Before then, no one in Beijing wants to risk reforms that would spoil the occasion if they failed.
这些取舍非常难以权衡。而中国政府甚至不愿像往常一样承担风险。在2017年称，中国共产党将召开十九大，彼时习近平主席将进一步巩固其政权。在那之前，没有哪位领导人原意冒险进行改革，一旦失败了的话将会是火上浇油。
However, the pursuit of economic stability often sows the seeds of its own demise. In the case of dealing with America, incrementalism has stored up trouble: giving in to the market and letting the yuan fall may now hasten a trade war. And if officials really were to slow credit growth, the economy would soon feel it. Who would dare risk that when Mr Xi wants growth to stay at around 6.5%? Investors may like the appearance of stability. But to avoid a crash tomorrow, China must accept more bumps today.
然而，一味追求经济平稳发展通常都会为未来埋下祸根。在应对美国方面，采取渐进主义会无形中累积起麻烦：向市场屈服，任凭人民币贬值有可能会加快贸易战的爆发。如果中国政府确实减缓信贷增长，中国经济很快会有所反应。在习主席提出增长率保持在6.5%水平之际，谁敢轻举妄动呢？投资者或许会喜欢平稳经济的表象，但是，为避免将来出现经济撞车，中国现在必须接受更多的颠簸。
编译：张玺元
编辑：翻吧君
英文来源：经济学人